Skip to main content

Strategic Prospective: Definitions and Key Concepts

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Book cover Integrating Soft Computing into Strategic Prospective Methods

Part of the book series: Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing ((STUDFUZZ,volume 387))

Abstract

The prospective approach introduced the possibility of recognizing several possible states in the next time interval, because it does not reduce the dynamics of change to a simple rational choice, as is the case when reflections on the future focus only on the identification or extrapolation of trends. Thus, the prospective provides the basis for long-term reflection on the system being studied that give a multi-dimensional and multi-scale vision of it. There are a variety of available methods and techniques that have been developed to deal with long-term strategic reflections, which ability to decision-makers to make estimations of futures, identify future-bearing facts and to make inferences about the future. Therefore, this chapter hopes to help the reader identify the key definitions and concepts around the prospective approach, in addition to recognizing similarities and divergences with other approaches in the field of Future Studies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Bachelard, G. (1936). Dans Inquisitions, du surralisme au Front populaire. Facsimil la revue (1936) augm. . (s. l. documents indits, Ed.) Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger, G. (1958). Humanisme et technique. Revue de l’enseignement supérieur, 5–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blondel, M. (1893). L’action, essai d’une critique de la vie et d’une science de la pratique.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bourse, F. (15-16 de febrero de 2016). Pratiques professionnelles de la prospective/master class. Bogotá, Colombia.

    Google Scholar 

  • Briones, G. (2002). Metodología de la investigación cuantitativa en las ciencias sociales. Bogotá: ARFO Editores e Impresores Ltda.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bunge, M. (1993). Realism and antirealism in social science. Theory and Decision, 35(3), 207–235.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaitin, G. (1975). Randomness and mathematical proof. Scientific American, 232(5), 47–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaitin, G. (1977). Algorithmic information theory. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 21(4), 350–359.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • De Jouvenel, B. (1967). arte della congettura. Florencia: Vallecchi Editore.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Menthiere Nicolas, L., & Audrey, B. (2016). Visions du futur et environnement. Les grandes familles de scénarios issues d’une analyse de prospectives internationales relatives à l’environnement. Volume 1: rapport final de l’étude ScénEnvi. AllEnvi: Alliance nationale de recherche pour l’environnement.

    Google Scholar 

  • Durance, P., & Godet, M. (2010). Scenario building: Uses and abuses. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1488–1492.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuller, T., & Loogma, K. (2009). Constructing futures: A social constructionist perspective on foresight methodology. Futures, 41(2), 71–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibert-Galassi, J. (2014). Ontología social y el problema de los mecanismos. (E. R. filosofía, Ed.) Retrieved octubre 2, 2017, from Eikasia: Revista de filosofía: http://revistadefilosofia.com/54-06.pdf.

  • Gödel, K. (1931). Über formal unentscheidbare Sätze der Principia Mathematica und verwandter Systeme I. Monatshefte für mathematik und physik, 38(1), 173–198.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M. (1976). SMIC 74: A reply from the authors. Futures, 8(4), 336–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M. (1985). Prospective et planification stratégique. Paris: Editions CNAM.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M. (1986). Introduction to la prospective: seven key ideas and one scenario method. Futures, 18(2), 134–157.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). La prospective stratégique-2e éd.: Pour les entreprises et les territoires. París: Dunod.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harper, J., Cuhls, K., Georghious, L., & Johnston, R. (2008). Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 267–269.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hazlitt, W. (1805). An essay on the principles of human action: Being an argument in favour of the natural disinterestedness of the human mind. J. Johnson.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jouvenel, H. (2004). Invitation à la prospective. Paris: Futuribles.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuusi, O., Cuhls, K., & Steinmüller, K. (2015). The futures map and its quality criteria. European Journal of Futures Research, 3(1), 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz, E. (1976). Nondeterministic theories of climatic change. Quaternary Research, 6(4), 495–506.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mainzer, K. (2002). The little book of time. Berlin: Springer Science and Business Media.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot, B. (1967). How long is the coast of Britain. Science, 636–638.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot, B. (1977). Fractals. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot, B., & Pignoni, R. (1983). The fractal geometry of nature (Vol. 173). New York: WH freeman.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mietzner, D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. International Journal Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), 220–239.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poincaré, H. (1905). Science and hypothesis. Science Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Popper, K. (1965). Of clouds and clocks; An approach to the problem of rationality and the freedom of man. Washington University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Popper, K. (1970). Normal science and its dangers (pp. 57–58). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Popper, K. (1979). Truth, rationality and the growth of scientific knowledge. Vittorio Klostermann.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I. (1967). Introduction to thermodynamics of irreversible processes (3rd ed.). New York: Interscience.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I. (1980a). From being to becoming. New York: Freeman.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I. (1980b). In F. b. becoming. New York: Freeman.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I. (1993). Science, reason and passion. In M. B. E. (Ed.), Art and science: Studies from the world academy of art and science (p. 43). Budapest: World Futures.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I., & Stengers, I. (1979). La nouvelle alliance: métamorphose de la science. Gallimard.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prigogine, I., & Stengers, I. (1984). Order out of Chaos. London: Heinemann.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rounsevell, M., & Metzger, M. (2010). Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment: Developing qualitative scenario storylines. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(4), 606–619.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shannon, C., & Weaver, W. (1949). The mathematical theory of communication. Urbana, IL: EEUU.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Shannon, C., Weaver, W., & Burks, A. (1951). The mathematical theory of communication.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H. (1996). The sciences of the artificial. Cambridge: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smale, S. (1967). Differentiable dynamical systems. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 73(6), 747–817.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Suddendorf, T., & Corballis, M. (2007). The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 299–313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thom, R. (1977). Structural stability, catastrophe theory, and applied mathematics. SIAM Review, 12(9), 189–201.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Thom, R. (1983). Mathematical models of morphogenesis. Ellis Horwood.

    Google Scholar 

  • Touraine, A. (2000). A method for studying social actors. Journal of World-Systems Research, 6(3), 900–918.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turing, A. (1936). Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society, 42(1), 230–265.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turing, A. (1937). Computability and λ-definability. The Journal of Symbolic Logic, 2(4), 153–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turing, A. (1950). Computing machinery and intelligence. Mind, 59(236), 433–460.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Turing, A. (1952). The chemical basis of morphogenesis. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. B: Biological Sciences, 237(641), 37–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilde, M. (2011). From classical to quantum Shannon theory. arXiv.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Raúl Trujillo-Cabezas .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Trujillo-Cabezas, R., Verdegay, J.L. (2020). Strategic Prospective: Definitions and Key Concepts. In: Integrating Soft Computing into Strategic Prospective Methods. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 387. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25432-2_2

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics