Abstract
To better optimize the decision chain in a maritime disaster context, allowing a reduction both in time of support and costs, recently, the authors considered the facilities and high qualified staff of Portuguese Navy proposing a variant of the Delphi method, a method where the opinion of each element of a team is considered an important information source to contribute to a decision, implementing a system that prioritize certain teams for perform specific in incidents, taking into account the importance of each team that acts in case of a disaster occurrence.
Continuing the work developed recently and extending the technique used before, in the present manuscript, we propose an adjustment of each expert opinion weight when the Delphi method is applied. The weight of each expert does not not depend on years of expert experience exclusively but also from the type of such experience. Firstly, we have used the hierarchical classification, allowing to identify different patterns for experts with the “‘same experience”’. Also discriminant analysis and multidimensional scaling revealed to be adequate techniques for this issue. The experience of each expert was evaluated using the proximity/distance between the individuals in the group of proposed experts and compared with the number of consensus presented.
We hope to have given an improvement to the optimization o the decision support system used in a maritime disaster context of the Portuguese Navy.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Powell, C.: The delphi technique: myths and realities. Methodol. Issues Nurs. Res. 41(4), 376–382 (2003)
Reuven, L., Dongchui, H.: Choosing a technological forecasting method. Ind. Manage. 37(1), 14–22 (1995)
Duuvarci, Y., Selvi, O., Gunaydin, O., Gür, G.: Impacts of transportation projects on urban trends in zmir. Teknik Dergi 19(1), 4293–4318 (2008)
Simões-Marques, M., Correia, A., Teodoro, M., Nunes, I.: Building a decision support system to handle teams in disaster situations - a preliminary approach. In: Nunes, I. (ed.) Proceedings of Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions, AHFE 2017 Conference on Human Factors and System Interactions, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 97–108. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60366-7_10
Nunes, I.L., Lucas, R., Simões-Marques, M., Correia, N.: Augmented reality in support of disaster response. In: Nunes, I. (ed.) Proceedings of Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions, AHFE 2017 Conference on Human Factors and System Interactions, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 155–167. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60366-7_15
Marques, M., Elvas, F., Nunes, I., Lobo, V., Correia, A.: Augmented reality in the context of naval operations. In: Ahram, T., Karwowski, W., Taiar, R. (eds.) IHSED 2018, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 307–313. Springer, Cham (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02053-8_47
Nunes, I., Lucas, R., Simões-Marques, M., Correia, N.: An augmented reality application to support deployed emergency teams. In: Bagnara, S., Tartaglia, R., Albolino, S., Alexander, T., Fujita, Y. (eds.) Proceedings of the 20th Congress of the International Ergonomics Association. IEA 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 195–204. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96077-7_21
Nunes, I., Calhamonas, G., Simões-Marques, M., Teodoro, M.: Building a decision support system to handle teams in disaster situations - a preliminary approach. In: Madureira, A., Abraham, A., Gandhi, N., Varela, M. (eds.) Hybrid Intelligent Systems. HIS 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 551–559. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14347-3_54
Simões Marques, J., Teodoro, M.F., Calhamonas, G., Nunes, I.: Applying a variation of delphi method for knowledge elicitation in the context of an intelligent system design. In: Nunes, I. (ed.) Proceedings of Advances in Human Factors and System Interactions, AHFE 2019 Conference on Human Factors and System Interactions, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 386–398. Springer, Cham (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-20040-4_35
Thurstone, L.: Multiple fator analysis. Psychol. Rev. 38, 406–427 (1931)
Thurstone, L.: Primary Mental Abilities. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1938)
Thurstone, L., Thurstone, T.: Fator Studies of Intelligence. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1941)
Carroll, J., Green, P.: Psychometric methods in marketing research: part ii, multidimensional scaling. J. Mark. Res. 34(2), 193–204 (1997)
Young, G., Householder, A.: Discussion of a set of point in terms of their mutual distances. Psychometrika 3, 19–22 (1938). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02287916
Torgerson, W.: Multidimensional scaling: i. theory and method. Psychometrika 17, 401–419 (1952). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02288916
Torgerson, W.: Theory and Methods of Scaling. Wiley, Chicago (1958)
Pasquali, L.: Instrumentos Psicológicos: Manual Prático De Elaboração. LabPAM, Brasília (1999)
Silva, J., Ribeiro-Filho, N.: Avaliação e Mensuração da Dor: Pesquisa. Teoria e Prática. FUNPEC, Ribeirão Preto (2006)
Sturrock, K., Rocha, J.: A multidimensional scaling stress evaluation table. Field Methods 12, 49–60 (2000)
Kruskal, J., Wish, M.: Multidimensional Scaling. SAGE, Thousand Oaks (1978). https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412985130
Skulmoski, G., Hartman, F., Krahn, J.: The delphi method for graduate research. J. Inf. Technol. Educ. 6, 1–24 (2007)
Lilja, K., Laakso, K., Palomki, J.: Using the delphi method. In: Kocaoglu, D. (ed.) Technology Management in the Energy Smart World, PICMET 2011, pp. 1–10. Piscataway (2011). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5138006
Linstone, H., Turoff, M.: The Delphi Method-Techniques and Applications. New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ (2002)
Gunaydin, H.: Impact of Information Technologies on Project Management Functions. Ph.D. dissertation, Chicago University (1999)
De Vet, E., Brug, J., De Nooijer, J., Dijkstra, A., De Vries, N.: Determinants of forward stage transitions: a delphi study. Health Educ. Res. 20(2), 195–205 (2005)
Wissema, J.: Trends in technology forecasting. Res. Dev. Manage. 12(1), 27–36 (1982)
Fraga, M.: A economia circular na indústria portuguesa de pasta, papel e cartão. Master thesis, FCT, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (2017)
Adler, M., Ziglio, E.: Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and Public Health. Kingsley Publishers, London (1996)
Azevedo, S., Carvalho, H., Machado, V.: Agile index: automotive supply chain. Eng. Technol. 79, 784–790 (2011)
Azevedo, S., Govindan, K., Carvalho, H., Machado, V.: Ecosilient index to assess the grenness and resilience of the up stream automotive supply chain. J. Cleaner Prod. 56, 131–146 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2012.04.011
Landeta, J.: Current validity of the delphi method in social sciences. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 73(5), 467–482 (2006)
Rowe, G., Wright, G.: The delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. Int. J. Forecast. 14(4), 353–375 (1999)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Portuguese funds through the Center of Naval Research (CINAV), Portuguese Naval Academy, Portugal and The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), through the Center for Computational and Stochastic Mathematics (CEMAT), University of Lisbon, Portugal, project UID/Multi/04621/2019.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Teodoro, M.F., Marques, M.J.S., Nunes, I., Calhamonas, G., Andrade, M.A.P. (2022). New Refinement of an Intelligent System Design for Naval Operations. In: Machado, J., Soares, F., Trojanowska, J., Yildirim, S. (eds) Innovations in Mechatronics Engineering. icieng 2021. Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79168-1_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79168-1_16
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-79167-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-79168-1
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)