Abstract
An exodus, a consequence of political, economic, and social dissatisfaction, has driven more than 4.6 million of Venezuelans to leave their country since 2016. The spillover effect of this humanitarian crisis has impacted neighboring countries in South America which now face unprecedented migratory influx. Perú’s robust economic growth of the last decade has drawn Venezuelans over the border in search of better living standards. At the same time, Peru’s recent political scandals with corruption, impeachments, and graft probes have created economic turmoil. Venezuelan immigration has exacerbated this instability, and Peruvians, law makers, media, and international stakeholders have not yet found agreement in how to respond. The application of Social Network Analysis, Spatial Bargaining, and Game Theory reveals the Expected Utility of Peru’s political agenda concerning migration. As anticipated, the power of influential states and the potential economic benefit that a developing country such as Peru could gain from migration will influence future political decision making on this issue even if this response refuses to support popular demand.
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Notes
- 1.
Global Compact for Migration. “Refugees and Migrants”. https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact (2017).
- 2.
The World Bank. “Venezuelan Migration: The 4,500-kilometer Gap Between Desperation and Opportunity” https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2019/11/26/migracion-venezolana-4500-kilometros-entre-el-abandono-y-la-oportunidad.
- 3.
Venezuelan Migration in Peru: https://publications.iadb.org.
- 4.
New country classification by income level https://blogs.worldbank.org.
- 5.
Venezuelan immigration: crime and fake perceptions: https://www.migrationpolicy.org.
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Guerra, J. (2021). Opening Borders. Peru’s Expected Utility on Venezuelan Immigration: A Social Network Analysis. In: Wright, J.L., Barber, D., Scataglini, S., Rajulu, S.L. (eds) Advances in Simulation and Digital Human Modeling. AHFE 2021. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 264. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79763-8_11
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