Abstract
Dependence in human reliability analysis (HRA) is the concept that once an initial human error has occurred, subsequent human errors are more likely. The approach almost universally adopted in HRA was first introduced in the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP). In THERP, calculated human error probabilities (HEPs) are adjusted for dependence in the final step of quantification. This final adjustment for dependence involves anchoring the HEP to a set of values corresponding to low through complete dependence. The effect is to increase the HEP. In this paper, we propose formative dependence, which occurs at the onset of quantification. We demonstrate that dependence should be considered earlier in the calculation process, because it is not actually necessary to calculate the HEP when it is subsequently overridden by the dependence anchors. By applying dependence first in the calculation, processing steps can be eliminated, making for more efficient analysis.
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Acknowledgments
This work of authorship was prepared as an account of work sponsored by Idaho National Laboratory (under Contract DE-AC07-05ID14517), an agency of the U.S. Government. Neither the U.S. Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
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Boring, R., Park, J., Mortenson, T. (2021). Formative vs. Summative Dependence in Human Reliability Analysis. In: Arezes, P.M., Boring, R.L. (eds) Advances in Safety Management and Human Performance. AHFE 2021. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 262. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80288-2_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80288-2_8
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