Skip to main content

Agent-Based Computational Economics

  • Living reference work entry
  • First Online:
  • 414 Accesses

Definition of the Subject

Mainstream economic models typically make the assumption that an entire group of agents, e.g., “investors,” can be modeled with a single “rational representative agent.” While this assumption has proven extremely useful in advancing the science of economics by yielding analytically tractable models, it is clear that the assumption is not realistic: people are different one from the other in their tastes, beliefs, and sophistication, and as many psychological studies have shown, they often deviate from rationality in systematic ways.

Agent-based computational economics is a framework allowing economics to expand beyond the realm of the “rational representative agent.” Modeling and simulating the behavior of each agent and the interaction among agents agent-based simulation allows us to investigate the dynamics of complex economic systems with many heterogeneous and not necessarily fully rational agents.

The agent-based simulation approach allows economists to...

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Abbreviations

Agent-based simulation:

A simulation of a system of multiple interacting agents (sometimes also known as “microscopic simulation”). The “micro” rules governing the actions of the agents are known and so are their rules of interaction. Starting with some initial conditions, the dynamics of the system are investigated by simulating the state of the system through discrete time steps. This approach can be employed to study general properties of the system, which are not sensitive to the initial conditions, or the dynamics of a specific system with fairly well-known initial conditions, e.g., the impact of the baby boomers’ retirement on the US stock market.

Bounded rationality:

Most economic models describe agents as being fully rational – given the information at their disposal, they act in the optimal way which maximizes their objective (or utility) function. This optimization may be technically very complicated requiring economic, mathematical, and statistical sophistication. In contrast, bounded-rational agents are limited in their ability to optimize. This limitation may be due to limited computational power, errors, or various psychological biases which have been experimentally documented.

Market anomalies:

Empirically documented phenomena that are difficult to explain within the standard rational-representative-agent economic framework. Some of these phenomena are the overreaction and underreaction of prices to news the autocorrelation of stock returns, various calendar and day-of-the-week effects, and the excess volatility of stock returns.

Representative agent:

A standard modeling technique in economics by which an entire class of agents (e.g., investors) are modeled by a single “representative” agent. If agents are completely homogeneous, it is obvious that the representative agent method is perfectly legitimate. However, when agents are heterogeneous, the representative agent approach can lead to a multitude of problems (see Kirman 1992).

Bibliography

Primary Literature

  • Admati A, Pfleiderer P (1988) A theory of intraday patterns: volume and price variability. Rev Financ Stud 1:3–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arthur WB (1994) Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality (The El Farol problem). Am Econ Rev 84:406–411

    Google Scholar 

  • Arthur WB, Holland JH, Lebaron B, Palmer RG, Tayler P (1997) Asset pricing under endogenous expectations in an artificial stock market. In: Arthur WB, Durlauf S, Lane D (eds) The economy as an evolving complex system II. Addison-Wesley, Redwood City

    Google Scholar 

  • Brock WA, Hommes CA (1998) Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model. J Econ Dyn Control 22:1235–1274

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Egenter E, Lux T, Stauffer D (1999) Finite size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models. Phys A 268:250–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Epstein JM, Axtell RL (1996) Complex adaptive systems. In: Growing artificial societies: social science from the bottom up. MIT Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Fama E, French K (1988) Permanent and temporary components of stock prices. J Polit Econ 96:246–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friend I, Blume ME (1975) The demand for risky assets. Am Econ Rev 65:900–922

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon J, Paradis GE, Rorke CH (1972) Experimental evidence on alternative portfolio decision rules. Am Econ Rev 62(1):107–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Grossman S, Stiglitz J (1980) On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. Am Econ Rev 70:393–408

    Google Scholar 

  • Hellthaler T (1995) The influence of investor number on a microscopic market. Int J Mod Phys C 6:845–852

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Hommes CH (2002) Modeling the stylized facts in finance through simple nonlinear adaptive systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:7221–7228

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Jegadeesh N, Titman S (1993) Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency. J Finance 48:65–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karpoff J (1987) The relationship between price changes and trading volume: a survey. J Finance Quant Anal 22:109–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim GW, Markowitz HM (1989) Investment rules, margin, and market volatility. J Portf Manage 16:45–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirman AP (1992) Whom or what does the representative agent represent? J Econ Perspect 6:117–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kohl R (1997) The influence of the number of different stocks on the Levy, Levy Solomon model. Int J Mod Phys C 8:1309–1316

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Kroll Y, Levy H, Rapoport A (1988) Experimental tests of the separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model. Am Econ Rev 78:500–519

    Google Scholar 

  • LeBaron B (2000) Agent-based computational finance: suggested readings and early research. J Econ Dyn Control 24:679–702

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Levy H (1994) Absolute and relative risk aversion: an experimental study. J Risk Uncertain 8:289–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levy H, Lim KC (1998) The economic significance of the cross-sectional autoregressive model: further analysis. Rev Quant Finance Account 11:37–51

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levy M, Levy H (1996) The danger of assuming homogeneous expectations. Finance Analyst J 52:65–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levy M, Levy H, Solomon S (1994) A microscopic model of the stock market: cycles, booms, and crashes. Econom Lett 45:103–111

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Levy M, Levy H, Solomon S (2000) Microscopic simulation of financial markets. Academic, San Diego

    Google Scholar 

  • Levy M, Persky N, Solomon S (1996) The complex dyn of a simple stock market model. Int J High Speed Comput 8:93–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lux T (1995) Herd behaviour, bubbles and crashes. Econ J 105:881

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lux T (1998) The socio-economic dynamics of speculative bubbles: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of returns distributions. J Econ Behav Organ 33:143–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lux T, Marchesi M (1999) Volatility clustering in financial markets: a micro-simulation of interacting agents. Nature 397:498

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Orcutt GH, Caldwell SB, Wertheimer R (1976) Policy exploration through microanalytic simulation. The Urban Institute, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer RG, Arthur WB, Holland JH, LeBaron B, Tayler P (1994) Artificial economic life: a simple model of a stock market. Phys D 75:264–274

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Poterba JM, Summers LH (1988) Mean reversion in stock returns: evidence and implications. J Finance Econ 22:27–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samanidou E, Zschischang E, Stauffer D, Lux T (2007) Agent-based models of financial markets. Rep Prog Phys 70:409–450

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson PA (1989) The judgement of economic science on rational portfolio management: timing and long horizon effects. J Portf Manage 16:4–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson PA (1994) The long term case for equities and how it can be oversold. J Portf Manag 21:15–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sargent T (1993) Bounded rationality and macroeconomics. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Schelling TC (1978) Micro motives and macro behavior. Norton, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Shiller RJ (1981) Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am Econ Rev 71:421–436

    Google Scholar 

  • Stauffer D, de Oliveira PMC, Bernardes AT (1999) Monte Carlo simulation of volatility correlation in microscopic market model. Int J Theor Appl Finance 2:83–94

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Tesfatsion L (2001) Special issue on agent-based computational economics. J Econ Dyn Control 25:281–293

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Tesfatsion L (2002) Agent-based computational economics: growing economies from the bottom up. Artif Life 8:55–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thaler R (ed) (1993) Advances in behavioral finance. Russel Sage Foundation, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Thaler R (1994) Quasi rational economics. Russel Sage Foundation, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A, Kahneman D (1981) The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211:453–480

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  ADS  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A, Kahneman D (1986) Rational choice and the framing of decision. J Bus 59(4):251–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tversky A, Kahneman D (1992) Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J Risk Uncertain 5:297–323

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

Books and Reviews

  • Anderson PW, Arrow J, Pines D (eds) (1988) The economy as an evolving complex system. Addison-Wesley, Redwood City

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Axelrod R (1997) The complexity of cooperation: agent-based models of conflict and cooperation. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss de Oliveira S, de Oliveira H, Stauffer D (1999) Evolution, money, war and computers. BG Teubner, Stuttgart/Leipzig

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon S (1995) The microscopic representation of complex macroscopic phenomena. In: Stauffer D (ed) Annu Rev Comput Phys II. World Scientific, Singapore

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Moshe Levy .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this entry

Cite this entry

Levy, M. (2014). Agent-Based Computational Economics. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_6-7

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27737-5_6-7

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-27737-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Physics and AstronomyReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Chemistry, Materials and Physics

Publish with us

Policies and ethics